Could Apple Watch Really Be Worth $26 Billion in sales?

The Apple Watch may be a $26 billion business by 2018, Deutsche Bank analyst Sherri Scribner predicted in a note Thursday.

However, she only reiterated a hold rating on Apple Inc.'s stock, saying a limited impact from the Watch and Apple's heavy reliance on the iPhone offer "limited catalysts" to drive shares higher over the next few quarters.

Her $110 price target implies a 14% share-price decline from Apple's $128.54 closing price on Wednesday.

To be fair, Scribner is one of the most bearish Apple analysts on Wall Street. The average rating on Apple's stock among more than 40 analysts is overweight, and the average price target is $134.92, according to FactSet.

While Apple will undoubtedly outsell all rival smartwatches this year, according to Scribner, she expects the Watch to remain a minor product category in relation to the iPhone, comprising 10% or less of sales and EPS by 2018. Shares of Apple traded up 0.3% in premarket trade.

Market top---ETFs tell a story

U.S. investors have pulled $16.8B from equity-based ETFs in 2015 and sent $16.9B to bonds. That’s the biggest divergence in quarterly data going back to 2000.

With nine straight quarters of stock-market gains, equity valuations at a five-year high, and the Fed bracing to raise interest rates, investors may be rethinking the $240B they've pumped into U.S. stocks over the past two years.

Bearish options contracts on the SP 500 are 9.25 points more than bullish ones. “There seems to be more apprehension and hesitation than we normally have at this stage of bull markets,” one analyst says.