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Tuesday, May 5, 2015

Invensense earnings. Some positives and some negatives.

It wasn't the best and it wasn't the worst. InvenSense, Inc. (NYSE: INVN) the leading provider of intelligent sensor system on chip (SoC) for Motion and Sound, today announced results for its fourth quarter and fiscal year ended March 29, 2015.

Net revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2015 was $99.3 million, down 14 percent from $115.9 million for the third quarter of fiscal 2015, and up 68 percent from $59.0 million for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2014.

Gross margin determined in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) was 43 percent for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2015, consistent with the third quarter of fiscal 2015. GAAP gross margin for fourth quarter of fiscal 2015 included stock-based compensation and related payroll taxes, and amortization of acquisition intangibles. Excluding these items, non-GAAP gross margin was 46 percent for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2015, consistent with the third quarter of fiscal 2015.

GAAP net income for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2015 was $0.4 million, or zero cents per diluted share. By comparison, GAAP net income was $10.2 million, or 11 cents per diluted share for the third quarter of fiscal 2015. GAAP net income for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2015 included stock-based compensation and related payroll taxes, accreting interest expense on convertible notes, amortization of acquisition intangibles, business acquisition costs, certain legal expenses and the income tax effect of non-GAAP adjustments. Excluding these items, non-GAAP net income for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2015 was $11.4 million, or 12 cents per diluted share, compared with $19.3 million, or 21 cents per diluted share, for the third quarter of fiscal 2015.

Fiscal Year 2015 Results
Net revenue for the fiscal year 2015 was $372.0 million, up $119.5 million, or 47% from $252.5 million for the fiscal year 2014.

GAAP net loss for the fiscal year 2015 was $1.1 million, compared with net income of $6.1 million for the fiscal year 2014. On a non-GAAP basis, net income for the fiscal year 2015 was $42.7 million, or $0.46 per diluted share. This compares with non-GAAP net income of $52.3 million, or $0.58 per diluted share for the fiscal year 2014.

GAAP diluted net loss per share for the fiscal year 2015 as one cent, compared with diluted net income per share of seven cents for the fiscal year 2014.

Management Qualitative Comments
"Fiscal 2015 was a significant year for InvenSense," said Behrooz Abdi, president and CEO. "We achieved the highest revenue in company history, driven by strong market share gains and several high-volume customer wins. We also brought to market a record number of new products across our motion sensor, software and microphone portfolio intended to open up incremental revenue growth opportunities over the coming quarters. Our success in mobile in fiscal 2015 laid important groundwork for our continued achievement in the coming year, while the advancement of our platform strategy provides us with multiple entry points into verticals beyond mobile where our technology can provide significant value in the years to come."

Betflix urges rejection of AT&T and DirecTV merger

Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) is pressing the FCC to reject the $48B merger of AT&T (NYSE:T) and DirecTV (NASDAQ:DTV), according to regulatory filings revealed today, on complaints about market power -- as the merger could "lead to its becoming the largest (Internet service provider) in the country as well" as becoming the biggest MVPD.

The remarks came as Netflix officials met with more than 20 FCC staff last week.

"Such market power creates new incentives and abilities to harm entities that AT&T perceives as competitive threats," Netflix reps said, "and will exacerbate the anticompetitive behavior in which AT&T has already engaged."

Netflix shares are up 3.8% today in the wake of BofA/Merrill Lynch's heavy upgrade; AT&T is down 1.2% and DirecTV is down 0.5%

Thursday, March 5, 2015

Could Apple Watch Really Be Worth $26 Billion in sales?

The Apple Watch may be a $26 billion business by 2018, Deutsche Bank analyst Sherri Scribner predicted in a note Thursday.

However, she only reiterated a hold rating on Apple Inc.'s stock, saying a limited impact from the Watch and Apple's heavy reliance on the iPhone offer "limited catalysts" to drive shares higher over the next few quarters.

Her $110 price target implies a 14% share-price decline from Apple's $128.54 closing price on Wednesday.

To be fair, Scribner is one of the most bearish Apple analysts on Wall Street. The average rating on Apple's stock among more than 40 analysts is overweight, and the average price target is $134.92, according to FactSet.

While Apple will undoubtedly outsell all rival smartwatches this year, according to Scribner, she expects the Watch to remain a minor product category in relation to the iPhone, comprising 10% or less of sales and EPS by 2018. Shares of Apple traded up 0.3% in premarket trade.

Market top---ETFs tell a story

  • U.S. investors have pulled $16.8B from equity-based ETFs in 2015 and sent $16.9B to bonds. That’s the biggest divergence in quarterly data going back to 2000.

  • With nine straight quarters of stock-market gains, equity valuations at a five-year high, and the Fed bracing to raise interest rates, investors may be rethinking the $240B they've pumped into U.S. stocks over the past two years.

  • Bearish options contracts on the SP 500 are 9.25 points more than bullish ones. “There seems to be more apprehension and hesitation than we normally have at this stage of bull markets,” one analyst says.
  • Tuesday, February 24, 2015

    Toll bros kills it

    Toll Brothers, Inc. (NYSE:TOL) (www.tollbrothers.com), the nation's leading builder of luxury homes, today announced results for its first quarter ended January 31, 2015.
    http://media.globenewswire.com/cache/1924/int/30360.jpg

    FY 2015 First Quarter Financial Highlights:
    • FY 2015's first quarter net income was $81.3 million, or $0.44 per share, compared to net income of $45.6 million, or $0.25 per share, in FY 2014's first quarter.
    • Pre-tax income was $124.0 million, compared to pre-tax income of $71.2 million in FY 2014's first quarter.
    • Revenues of $853.5 million and home building deliveries of 1,091 units rose 33% in dollars and 18% in units, compared to FY 2014's first quarter. The average price of homes delivered was $782,300, compared to $693,600 in FY 2014's first quarter.
    • Net signed contracts of $873.2 million and 1,063 units rose 24% in dollars and 16% in units, compared to FY 2014's first quarter. The average price of net signed contracts was $821,500, compared to $766,100 in FY 2014's first quarter.
    • Backlog of $2.74 billion and 3,651 units rose 2% in dollars and was approximately flat in units, compared to FY 2014's first-quarter-end backlog. The average price of homes in backlog was $750,300, compared to $732,900 at FY 2014's first-quarter end. At FY 2015's first-quarter end, the Company also had a backlog of $295.8 million and 128 units in unconsolidated home building joint ventures in which the Company is a 50% partner.
    • Gross margin, excluding interest and write-downs, improved to 27.3%, compared to 24.4% in FY 2014's first quarter.
    • SG&A leverage (SG&A as a percentage of revenue) improved to 12.5%, compared to 15.2% in FY 2014's first quarter.
    • Income from operations improved to 11.4% of revenue, compared to 4.9% of revenue in FY 2014's first quarter.
    • Other income and Income from unconsolidated entities totaled $26.9 million, compared to $39.5 million in FY 2014's first quarter.
    • The Company ended its first quarter with 258 selling communities, compared to 263 at FYE 2014, and 238 at FY 2014's first-quarter end. The Company still projects to end FY 2015 with between 270 and 310 selling communities.
    • At FY 2015's first-quarter end, the Company had approximately 45,300 lots owned and optioned, compared to approximately 47,200 at FYE 2014 and approximately 51,200 one year ago.
    • In updating its guidance, the Company now expects to deliver between 5,200 and 6,000 homes in FY 2015 at an average price of $725,000 to $760,000, compared to previous guidance of 5,000 to 6,000 homes at an average price of $710,000 to $760,000. This compares to 5,397 deliveries in FY 2014 at an average price of $725,000.
    • The Company, as per prior guidance, projects full FY 2015 gross margins (pre-interest and pre-impairments) of approximately 26%, which is consistent with FY 2014.
    Douglas C. Yearley, Jr., Toll Brothers' chief executive officer, stated: "Momentum (MMBF) continues to build as we begin the spring selling season. In our first quarter, we achieved 24% growth in the dollar value of signed contracts. Since the start of the second quarter, the number of signed contracts is up 13%.
    "We continue to benefit from our ongoing geographic diversification strategy. While we remain the dominant luxury builder in the suburban Washington, DC to Boston corridor, our growth in the West and South and in urban centers has expanded our brand into more locations and product lines.
    "Our California presence has increased significantly with the acquisition of Shapell Homes and several other well-timed Coastal California land purchases. This quarter, California produced 29% of the value of our signed contracts at an average price of approximately $1.1 million. Texas contributed 11% of the value of contracts with the Dallas division the main contributor. Our City Living division contributed 5% of the value of contracts at an average unit price of $2.3 million.
    "We are optimistic about earnings growth in FY 2016. This guidance is based on the high quality of our land positions, continued strong sales, particularly in California, and projected delivery growth from City Living buildings in New York City in FY 2016."
    Martin P. Connor, Toll Brothers' chief financial officer, stated: "Our gross margin, SG&A leverage and operating margin all improved significantly this quarter compared to one year ago. Our first quarter gross margin was particularly strong, due to a large number of high-priced deliveries from our Hoboken and New York City Living divisions.
    "Subject to our normal caveats regarding forward-looking statements, we offer the following guidance: We project full FY 2015 (pre-interest and pre-impairment) margins to be approximately 26%, consistent with our previous guidance. In our second quarter, we project delivering approximately 32% of units from our first-quarter-end backlog at an average price of $720,000 to $740,000. With three months of sales behind us, we are updating our delivery guidance for the full FY 2015 to a range of 5,200 to 6,000 homes at an average price of $725,000 to $760,000, compared to our previous guidance of a range of 5,000 to 6,000 homes at an average price of $710,000 to $760,000. We still expect to end FY 2015 with between 270 and 310 communities as we position the Company for future growth."
    Robert I. Toll, executive chairman, stated: "We are encouraged by the latest data from the Labor Department indicating strong job and wage growth momentum and also the Census Bureau's recent monthly reports showing solid growth in household formations, all of which are good for housing demand.
    "More jobs and better jobs should boost household formations and provide a basis for stronger housing demand. With the latest release from the National Association of Realtors citing home price appreciation, our buyers, who often are selling a home to move up, will have more money to invest in their new home and more potential customers to buy their existing home. Another positive data point comes from the Conference Board, which said consumer confidence in January reached its highest level since August 2007. We believe these positive macroeconomic trends, coupled with recent Federal initiatives to increase mortgage availability, should support housing's recovery."
    Doug Yearley stated: "Last week, Toll Brothers (TOL) was recognized as the Most Admired Home Builder in Fortune magazine's annual survey of the World's Most Admired Companies. This recognition speaks not only to the quality of our homes and communities, but also to the core of our business culture, our financial strength, our personnel, and our corporate management strategy. We salute all our Toll Brothers colleagues for their tremendous commitment to our customers and the hard work that led to this honor."
    Bob Toll continued: "We were also recently named America's Most Trusted Home Builder" from among 133 U.S. home builders, based on a study of 43,200 new home shoppers in the nation's top 27 housing markets conducted by Lifestory Research. Since Toll Brothers began back in 1967, we have sought to build a brand whose foundations are quality and trust. I believe we have succeeded. Congratulations to all our Toll Brothers associates on these significant awards."
    Toll Brothers' financial highlights for the FY 2015 first quarter ended January 31, 2015 (unaudited):
    • FY 2015's first-quarter net income was $81.3 million, or $0.44 per share diluted, compared to FY 2014's first-quarter net income of $45.6 million, or $0.25 per share diluted.
       
    • FY 2015's first-quarter pre-tax income was $124.0 million, compared to FY 2014 first-quarter pre-tax income of $71.2 million. FY 2015's first-quarter results included pre-tax inventory write-downs totaling $1.1 million ($0.9 million attributable to operating communities and $0.2 million attributable to future communities). FY 2014's first-quarter results included pre-tax inventory write-downs of $2.0 million ($1.3 million attributable to an operating community and $0.7 million attributable to future communities).
       
    • FY 2015's first-quarter total revenues of $853.5 million and 1,091 units increased 33% in dollars and 18% in units from FY 2014's first-quarter total revenues of $643.7 million and 928 units.
       
    • The Company's FY 2015 first-quarter net signed contracts of $873.2 million and 1,063 units, increased 24% in dollars and 16% in units, compared to FY 2014's first-quarter net signed contracts of $701.7 million and 916 units.
       
    • On a per-community basis, FY 2015's first-quarter net signed contracts was 4.09 units per community, compared to first quarter totals of 3.95 in FY 2014, 4.34 in FY 2013, 2.86 in FY 2012 and 2.81 in FY 2011.
       
    • In FY 2015, first-quarter-end backlog of $2.74 billion and 3,651 units increased 2% in dollars and was approximately flat in units, compared to FY 2014's first-quarter-end backlog of $2.69 billion and 3,667 units.
       
    • Excluding write-downs and interest, FY 2015's first-quarter gross margin improved to 27.3% from 24.4% in FY 2014's first quarter. FY 2015's first-quarter gross margin, including write-downs and interest, improved to 23.8% from 20.1% in FY 2014's first quarter.
       
    • Interest included in cost of sales declined to 3.3% of revenue in FY 2015's first quarter from 4.0% in FY 2014's first quarter.
       
    • SG&A as a percentage of revenue improved to 12.5%, compared to 15.2% in FY 2014's first quarter.
       
    • Income from operations of $97.1 million represented 11.4% of revenues in FY 2015's first quarter, compared to $31.8 million and 4.9% of revenues in FY 2014's first quarter.
       
    • Other income and Income from unconsolidated entities in FY 2015's first quarter totaled $26.9 million, including an $8.1 million gain from the sale of home security accounts to a third party by the Company's wholly-owned Westminster Security Company, compared to $39.5 million in FY 2014's same quarter, which included $23.5 million related to the sale of two shopping centers in which Toll Brothers was a 50% partner.
       
    • FY 2015's first-quarter cancellation rate (current-quarter cancellations divided by current-quarter signed contracts) was 5.6%, compared to 7.0% in FY 2014's first quarter. As a percentage of beginning-quarter backlog, FY 2015's first-quarter cancellation rate was 1.7%, compared to 1.9% in FY 2014's first quarter.
       
    • In FY 2015's first quarter, unconsolidated home building joint ventures in which the Company is a 50% partner delivered 27 units totaling $19.3 million of revenues, compared to 15 units totaling $11.6 million of revenues in the first quarter of FY 2014. The Company recorded its share of the results from these entities' operations in "Income from Unconsolidated Entities" on the Company's Statements of Operations.
       
    • In FY 2015's first quarter, unconsolidated home building joint ventures in which the Company is a 50% partner signed 20 contracts for $30.7 million, compared to 11 contracts for $7.8 million in FY 2014's first quarter.
       
    • At January 31, 2015, unconsolidated home building joint ventures in which the Company is a 50% partner had a backlog of $295.8 million and 128 units, compared to $42.4 million and 58 units at January 31, 2014.
       
    • The Company ended its FY 2015 first quarter with $511 million in cash and marketable securities, compared to $598 million at FYE 2014, and $1.20 billion at FY 2014's first-quarter end. At FY 2015's first-quarter end, the Company had $933 million available under its $1.035 billion, 15-bank credit facility, which matures in August 2018.
    • The Company's Stockholders' Equity at FY 2015's first-quarter end increased 9.4% to $3.96 billion, compared to $3.62 billion at FY 2014's first-quarter end.
       
    • The Company ended its FY 2015 first quarter with a net debt-to-capital ratio(1) of 41.5%, compared to 41.3% at FYE 2014 and 34.1% at FY 2014's first-quarter end. After the closing of the Shapell acquisition in early February 2014, the Company had a pro forma net debt-to-capital ratio of approximately 47.0%.
       
    • During the first quarter of FY 2015, the Company repurchased approximately 201,000 shares of its common stock at an average price of $31.08 for a total purchase price of $6.2 million.
       
    • The Company ended FY 2015's first quarter with approximately 45,300 lots owned and optioned, compared to 47,200 one quarter earlier, 51,200 one year earlier and 91,200 at its peak at FY 2006's second-quarter end. Approximately 36,100 of these 45,300 lots were owned, of which approximately 15,600 lots, including those in backlog, were substantially improved.
       
    • In the first quarter of FY 2015, the Company purchased 1,352 lots for $233.9 million.
       
    • The Company ended FY 2015's first quarter on January 31, 2015, with 258 selling communities, compared to 263 at FYE 2014 and 238 at FY 2014's first-quarter end. The Company still expects to end FY 2015 with between 270 and 310 selling communities.
       
    • Based on FY 2015's first-quarter-end backlog and the pace of activity at its communities, the Company now estimates it will deliver between 5,200 and 6,000 homes in FY 2015, compared to previous guidance of 5,000 to 6,000 units. It believes the average delivered price for FY 2015 will be $725,000 to $760,000 per home, compared to the previous guidance of $710,000 to $760,000.
       
    • In the second quarter of FY 2015, the Company projects delivering approximately 32% of units from its first-quarter-end backlog at an average price of $720,000 to $740,000.
       
    • The Company projects full FY 2015 gross margins (pre-interest and pre-impairments) of approximately 26%, which is consistent with FY 2014 results, excluding charges.
       
    • In FY 2015's first quarter, Gibraltar Capital and Asset Management, the Company's wholly owned subsidiary that invests in distressed loans and real estate, reported pre-tax income of $1.0 million, compared to $3.3 million of income in FY 2014's first quarter.
       
    • At FY 2015's first-quarter end, the Company had five rental apartment projects under construction totaling approximately 1,900 units through joint ventures in which the Company's ownership ranges from 25% to 50%. The Company has begun leasing units in two of these projects.

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